AI predicts Earth is on track to exceed 1,5°C warming in the next decade

Researchers from Stanford University and Colorado State University in the United States have found that warming of 1,5°C – above industrial levels – will likely be surpassed in the next decade and also that the Earth is on track to exceed 2 °C of warming, with a 50% chance that the serious milestone will be reached by mid-century.

In this innovative research (🇬🇧), using a 'neural network' - a type of IA that recognizes relationships in vast datasets – scientists trained the system to analyze a wide range of climate model simulations and then asked it to determine timelines for temperature thresholds.

The model found an almost 70% chance that the 2°C threshold will be exceeded between 2044 and 2065, even if emissions decline quickly. 

To check the forecasting ability of the IA, they also entered historical measurements and asked the system to evaluate current levels of global warming already observed. Using data from 1980 to 2021, the IA passed the test, correctly observing the 1,1°C warming achieved by 2022 and the patterns and pace observed in recent decades.

By offering a new way to predict our climate future, this study has made reducing emissions and adapting to the effects that are already beginning to manifest even more urgent.

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