Rio is still a foxhole for some of the president's main allies. They are supporters such as Fabrício Queiroz, a former advisor cited in investigations into cracks in the Legislative Assembly of Rio; retired general Eduardo Pazuello, who commanded the Ministry of Health during much of the pandemic; and one of the campaign's right-hand men, federal deputy Hélio Lopes.
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“The concern about Rio due to Bolsonaro’s campaign occurs because the State is home to the main support groups for the president”, explains political scientist Marcus Ianoni, professor at the Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF). “That’s where there is a prevalence of evangelicals and where the basis of Bolsonarism is. Losing in Rio means losing the narrative and signaling to the rest of the country the fragility of the campaign.”
One of the symbols of Bolsonaro's concern was the celebration of September 7th. In search of votes, the president went to the waterfront of Copacabana, a neighborhood known for being a Bolsonarist stronghold. There, in a move criticized by opponents as abusive and illegal, he merged the civic celebration with an election rally.
Another target was the evangelical public. Allied with pastors, such as Silas Malafaia, from the Assembly of God Vitória em Cristo (Advec), the president went to religious services and events. In them, he strongly agitated the morals agenda, with attacks on abortion and the decriminalization of drugs.
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The Bolsonaro effort seeks to repeat the numbers achieved by Bolsonaro in Rio in the last presidential contest. In 2018, he obtained 59,79% of valid votes in the first round, against just 14,69% for the PT candidate, Fernando Haddad. In the state, the PT member achieved one of the party's worst results that year: he came in third place.
Now, according to a Datafolha survey released on Thursday (29), Lula has 42% of voting intentions in the State and Bolsonaro, 37%. In the previous survey, on September 22, Lula had 40%. Bolsonaro fluctuated from 38% to 37%.
The president supports the leaders in the dispute for government and the Senate in Rio: Cláudio Castro (PL), who is trying to remain in the Guanabara Palace, and Romário (PL) who is seeking another term in Congress. The two remain around 10 points ahead of their opponents.
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According to political scientist Denilde Holzhacker, author of the book Electoral Research, Bolsonaro's high rejection rate – the president reached 52% in the latest polls – prevents the return to the voting levels reached in 2018.
“Bolsonaro has the support of Castro and Romário, which in theory would expand his capacity for growth in the State. However, the high rejection bars this resumption at the end of the campaign. Losing in his state is an impact on his political history and post-election survival. Rio and Minas show that, even with the leaders’ proximity to state governments, Bolsonaro does not capitalize,” he explains.
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In addition to the support of Castro and Romário, Bolsonaro also has faithful allies who are competing for seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro (Alerj). Fabrício Queiroz, former advisor to Flávio Bolsonaro denounced for embezzlement scheme, Pazuello, Waldir Ferraz, Bolsonaro's old friend, and deputies from the president's ideological base are campaigning for re-election.
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Support, however, is not converted into voting intentions in the polls. According to political scientist Ricardo Ismael, from PUC-Rio, the support of candidates for the Legislature has little influence on voters for the presidential vote. “Candidates for deputies have a low budget for their campaigns. Therefore, the reach is low and, normally, in sectors where the president already has support. These candidates speak to specific groups, where Bolsonaro does not have growth potential”, he assesses.
(Estadão Content)
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