Image credits: Flickr/Jeso Carneiro

Idea/Exam: Lula maintains 44%, Bolsonaro grows 3 points and reaches 36%

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Exame/Idea voting intention survey released this Thursday (25) shows that the advantage of candidate Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) fell 3 percentage points in relation to data from July. 44% of respondents declared a preference for Lula in this edition, the same percentage as in the previous survey, but voting intentions for Bolsonaro's re-election went from 33% to 36%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The intent search votes encouraged was hired by Revista Exame and heard 1.500 people over the phone between August 19 and 24, following interviews carried out by Jornal Nacional with candidates Jair Bolsonaro and Ciro Gomes. The survey record at the Superior Electoral Court is identified as BR-02405/2022.

????Electoral surveys: how are they carried out and where to follow?

Source: Reproduction/Examination

Bolsonaro x Lula: how the votes are divided

The PT candidate had the greatest advantage among female voters (50%) than Bolsonaro (30%). Among men, however, there is a technical tie (38% to 40%). The layer younger of voters also declared a greater preference for Lula, totaling 59% of those interviewed between 16 and 24 years old against 19% for Bolsonaro.

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A religion is a differentiator for both candidates.

  • Catholics: 53% prefer Lula, 27% Bolsonaro
  • Evangelicals: 53% prefer Bolsonaro, 28% Lula

54% of voters with an income of up to 3 minimum wages prefer Lula, while Bolsonaro has an advantage of 58% among the richest, who receive more than double this amount. In between the Brazilian regions, the candidate for re-election wins only in the Southeast (46% against 34%) and in the North (51% against 34%) in the dispute with the former president.

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Other candidates

According to the research, which does not include a candidate nomination list, it was found that the voting intentions of the other presidential candidates competing for the 2022 elections were:

  • 9% in Ciro Gomes (PDT)
  • 4% in Simone Tebet (MDB)

The two competitors maintained their preference percentages from the July Exame/Idea Survey. Two other candidates also reached at least one percentage point of voting intention:

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  • 1% in Vera Lúcia (PSTU)
  • 1% Felipe D'ávila (NEW)

3% of those interviewed did not know how to answer, and 2% said they would vote blank, null or none of the candidates.

What will the second round be like?

  • The estimate is a 43% to 49% advantage for Lula and 39% to 42% for Bolsonaro, according to the Poder 360º Research Aggregator, which calculates the average of the results of all stimulated voting intention polls.
  • The prediction of the Average Estadão Data calculated that the second part of the dispute has 45% with Lula and 33% with Bolsonaro.

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Top photo: Flickr/Jeso Carneiro

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