For the economist, professor, writer and member of the Brazilian Academy of Letters (ABL), Eduardo Giannetti da Fonseca There are signs that, if elected, Lula (PT) will move towards a government more similar to the one he had in his first term. Evidence of this is the choice of Geraldo Alckmin for the presidential ticket, the rapprochement with Marina Silva (Rede) and the support of Henrique Meirelles.
ADVERTISING
“He (Lula) is the clear favorite, because he has an advantage of 6 million votes,” said Gianetti. Read the main excerpts from the interview given to the newspaper Estadão.
How does Brazil emerge from the polls?
We have to recognize that, in a complex election, in a vast and continental country like Brazil, the Superior Electoral Court and the Brazilian electorate are to be congratulated, because it was a very civilized election. In relation to the presidential race, there was not much surprise in light of what the research institutes had been indicating.
Not even with the percentage obtained by Bolsonaro?
Bolsonaro had a slightly higher vote share than expected, and Lula had a performance very close to what was imagined by all the polls. But this difference (in research) is not just a Brazilian phenomenon. In both Trump elections, American pollsters were unable to correctly predict what happened in the election. In the first case, there was a near certainty of Hillary Clinton's victory, which she lost. In the second case, there was a clear margin of victory for Biden, but the election was close.
ADVERTISING
Is Lula a favorite?
He is clearly the favorite, because he has a lead of 6 million votes. And the votes of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes should, predominantly, migrate to Lula.
In the case of Lula's victory, how would he be able to implement his agenda with a more direct Congress?
The result of the Congress certainly makes the governability of a possible Lula government difficult, especially in the case of the Senate, in which there was a significant victory for the forces aligned with Bolsonarism. But we must remember that a newly elected president has great political capital at the beginning of his term.
ADVERTISING
And a Bolsonaro government scenario?
What worries me a lot about Bolsonaro's eventual second term is that the majority he will have in the Senate allows him to initiate an impeachment process at the Federal Supreme Court, in addition to appointing new ministers.
In the last four years, the country has seen institutions being tested, but responding. Do you think this wouldn't happen in Bolsonaro's second term?
I think the risk grows substantially. Bolsonaro, reinvigorated at the polls, will feel much more authorized to be able to do things he was unable to do in his first term.
ADVERTISING
And what would be the impact of this on the economy?
Whichever government is elected, it will inherit a very delicate fiscal situation. The Bolsonaro government, which took office with a speech of fiscal balance and austerity, underwent a dizzying change throughout its mandate.
None of the candidates makes it clear what their fiscal policy will be.
I have already participated in the coordination of government campaign programs. I understand the difficulty of being clear and specific on a subject as delicate as the fiscal anchor. But I understand that Lula has shown that he is moving towards a government more similar to that of his first term.
ADVERTISING
What are these signs?
First, Alckmin's presence as vice-president and with authority in the campaign. Secondly, Marina Silva's support is based on an agreement not only on elections, but also on an environmental program. And, finally, that meeting with the presidential candidates at which Henrique Meirelles, who was president of the Central Bank in Lula's first term, was present. It is a Lula who preserved the macroeconomic tripod and, to the surprise of many, increased the primary surplus in relation to what was being practiced during Fernando Henrique Cardoso's second term.
The election marked Marina Silva's rapprochement with Lula. Does this lead you to vote for him in this second round too?
I will never vote for a candidate who praises torturers, who turns a blind eye to the destruction of our environmental heritage, who has no appreciation for knowledge, education, culture, who threatens democracy and who played a simply disastrous role, to not to say tragic, in the management of the pandemic.
Source: Estadão Conteúdo
