The data also indicates that the number of parties with elected representatives should fall from 30 to 23; the profile of those elected must remain liberal in relation to the economy and conservative in social matters; and the ruralist, security and evangelical benches must emerge from the polls strengthened.
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Patriota, PTB and PROS are the parties most at risk of not electing federal deputies for the next legislature. The prognosis was made based on the result of the last election, campaign financing, electoral research, projections by the parties themselves and new legislation rules. Diap, which has been carrying out the survey for 32 years, with a 90% accuracy rate, defined a minimum and maximum number of deputies that can be elected from each party per State and calculated an average for the final result.
Concentration
The federation formed by PT, PCdoB and PV, which currently has 68 deputies, must elect 65 to 75 parliamentarians. The PL, in turn, which currently has a group of 76, can have 70 to 80 members. According to the data, power will be concentrated in the hands of seven parties (PT, PL, União Brasil, PP, PSD, Republicans and MDB), which must elect 80% of the Chamber. In this scenario, Centrão, the bloc formed mainly by PP, PL, Republicans and União Brasil, will maintain the strength to dominate the Legislature with a group of up to 298 deputies, that is, almost two thirds of the House.
On the left, parties aligned with the PT should grow moderately, reaching 162 elected representatives, 30 more than the current number.
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In practice, the President of the Republic elected in October will need to negotiate with the Centrão and the group that currently dominates the Chamber in order to govern. Polls indicate Lula's favoritism, which would force the PT member to join the parties that currently side with Bolsonaro.
A Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC), for example, needs at least 308 votes in favor to be approved in the Chamber. This type of measure is necessary to change the public spending ceiling, a fiscal anchor that Lula prometo revoke you, and for the approval of reforms in the tax and administrative system, issues that the PT member also proposes to change if elected. Seeking re-election, Bolsonaro also indicates that he should propose changes in these areas in a possible new term.
Force
“Centrão’s mission is to maintain the current bench, formed after the last party window, and strengthen itself from next year. The group must want to maintain the backbone of the structure they achieved, advancing the Budget and public campaign financing. If confirmed, the election number in the Chamber guarantees the maintenance of this model, whoever the next president is”, said Diap analyst and study coordinator, Neuriberg Dias.
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With a renewal between 40% and 45% lower than in the last election, the musical chairs in the Chamber should occur with the victory of politicians who already had a mandate in Congress or were governors. The election has a record number of candidates for re-election, and is supplied with resources from the secret budget and the electoral fund, which limit renewal.
States
Diap made an estimate in each state. In São Paulo, the PL has a chance of electing 15 to 17 federal deputies, followed by PT/PCdoB/PV (9 to 12), Republicans (7 to 9) and União Brasil (7 to 9).
For the coordinator of the study, the results of the polls in October should pave the way for the re-election of Arthur Lira (PP-AL) to the command of the Chamber, one of the main leaders of the Centrão and the politician who today has the greatest influence on the distribution of the secret budget. Next year's Budget project foresees a total of R$19,4 billion in secret amendments to be distributed. The deputy has already articulated the delivery of these resources in exchange for support.
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Diap's forecast indicates that only 12 parties must comply with the barrier clause, necessary to guarantee the receipt of Party Funds and TV and radio time in the elections. Under the clause, each party must have votes from at least 2% of the national electorate for their candidates, distributed across nine states, or elect 11 deputies from different regions.
(Estadão Conteúdo)
