Climate crisis: budget for carbon emissions is now minuscule, scientists say

O carbon budget is a concept that refers to the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere before a certain global temperature threshold is reached, with the aim of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

In this case, the global temperature limit is that imposed by the Paris Agreement. 

What is the Paris Agreement? And why is it so important?

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has one main objective: to reduce global warming. In practice, it seeks to prevent a 2ºC increase in global temperature in relation to the pre-industrial era, encouraging the creation of mechanisms to reduce the impact of climate change and the replacement of sources that emit greenhouse gases. O Curto explains more about one of the most important climate commitments in existence, quick game. 🤓

The new value, determined by the analysis, represents half of the estimated budget in 2020 which, at current emissions levels, will be exhausted.aria in six years.

The study concluded that the remaining carbon budget – at a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise below 1,5°C – is about 250 billion tons. 

Global emissions are expected to reach a record high of around 40 billion tonnes this year. So, to maintain the 50% possibility of a 1,5ºC limit, emissions would have to fall to zero by 2034, much faster than even the most radical scenarios..

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The main reasons why the budget has decreased so sharply since 2020 are continued high emissions from human activities and a better understanding of how reducing emissions atmospheric pollution increases heating by blocking less sunlight.

"The budget is so small and the urgency for meaningful action to limit warming is so high, [that] the message [of the carbon budget] is dire“, said one of the study’s authors, Professor Joeri Rogelj, from Imperial College London.

The analysis used updated data and improved climate modeling compared to other recent estimates. 

The study also adopted data showing how air pollution from aerosols helps limit warming. In this way, less pollution in the future meansaria but global warming and therefore a smaller carbon emissions budget to stay below 1,5ºC.

Climate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say https://t.co/tn92jsbrzq

— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) October 30, 2023

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