Published in the journal Nature Communications, the study – carried out by an international team of experts – analyzes six emissions scenarios proposed by three European giants in the energy sector: Equinor, BP and Shell, as well as those prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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They then compared them with the scenarios described in a report by the United Nations climate expert group (Giec) to limit the planet's average warming to 1,5°C.
“Most of the scenarios we analyzed are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, as they fail to limit warming to less than 2°C and will vastly exceed the 1,5°C limit,” said Robert Brecha, lead co-author of the study.
For you to understand, here are some of the different scenarios exposed in the research:
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- Shell's would lead to a warming of 1,81°C between now and 2069;
- that of Equinor, would lead to a warming of 1,73°C between now and 2060 and
- that of British Petroleum (BP), would lead to a warming peak of 1,73°C between now and 2058.
A Shell spokesperson told AFP that this scenario is just one possibility among many, and added that its teams make “assessments based on plausible hypotheses and quantifications, which are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes.”
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, led nations to agreepromehave to limit climate warming of the planet to a level “well below” +2°C in relation to the pre-industrial era, or +1,5°C if possible.
(With information from AFP)
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