The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) calculates that there is a 60% chance that 'El Niño' will develop by the end of July, and an 80% chance of the phenomenon forming by September.
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'El Niño' is a natural climate phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures, increased drought in some regions of the world and heavy rains in other areas.
The phenomenon last happened in 2018-2019 and caused a particularly long episode of 'La Niña', which causes the reverse effects and, in particular, a drop in temperatures.
Despite the moderating effect, the last eight years have been the hottest on record.
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Without 'La Niña', the level of warming would have been worse. “It was like a temporary brake on the increase in global temperatures,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the WMO, quoted in a statement.
However, “the development of 'El Niño' will most likely lead to a new peak in global warming and increase the possibilities of temperature records”, he warned.
“More extreme”
It is currently not possible to predict the intensity or duration of the 'El Niño' that is forming. The last recorded was considered a low level, but the previous one, between 2014 and 2016, was intense and had disastrous consequences.
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The WMO highlighted that 2016 was “the hottest year on record due to the 'double effect' of a very strong 'El Niño' and the warming caused by greenhouse gases related to human activity”.
The impact of 'El Niño' on temperatures is usually noticed in the year following the meteorological phenomenon. Therefore, the WMO fears that the effects will probably be observed in 2024.
“The world must be prepared for 'El Niño'”, warned Petteri Taalas.
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“This could lead to a respite in the drought in the Horn of Africa region and other 'La Niña'-related impacts, but it could also trigger more extreme meteorological and climate phenomena,” he declared.
Early warnings
Given the situation, Taalas reiterated the need for early warning systems – one of WMO's priorities – to protect the most threatened populations.
There are no two identical 'El Niños' and their effects depend in part on the period of the year in which they occur, explains the WMO. The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years on average and typically lasts between nine and 12 months.
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It is also associated with rising temperatures in some areas of the Pacific Ocean.
'El Niño' causes increased rainfall in some parts of South America, the United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
In Australia, Indonesia and some areas of South Asia it can cause severe droughts.
During the boreal summer (winter in Brazil) – the dry season in the northern hemisphere and the cold season in the southern hemisphere – the warming of surface waters caused by 'El Niño' can also result in hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the WMO.
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