Period 2023-2027 will likely be the hottest on record, warns UN

“There is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the hottest on record,” announced the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The specialized body of the United Nations It also calculates the probability that the average annual temperature of the Earth's surface will exceed 66°C at 1,5% pre-industrial levels during at least one of the five years.

Os Paris Agreements on climate (2015) set the objective of limiting the increase in global temperatures this century to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900, or to 1,5°C as far as possible.

The data published this Wednesday (17) “does not mean that we will permanently overcome the 1,5°C barrier of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over several years”, highlighted the secretary- general of the WMO, Petteri Taalas.

“The WMO, however, is sounding the alarm by announcing that we will exceed the 1,5°C level temporarily or more frequently,” he added.

“An episode of El Niño is expected in the coming months and this, combined with climate change caused by human activities, will cause global temperatures to rise to levels never before reached,” said the Finnish meteorologist. “This will have major consequences for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” he reiterated.

What are La Niña and El Niño climate phenomena?

El Niño and La Niña are climate phenomena known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affect global climate conditions, especially in the Pacific Ocean region. During El Niño, surface waters in the equatorial Pacific warm, causing a significant impact on global climate. This results in changes in wind patterns and rainfall distribution, leading to droughts and floods in different parts of the world. Conversely, during La Niña, waters in the central and eastern Pacific become colder than normal, causing opposite changes in weather patterns, such as heavy rainfall and wetter conditions in some regions.

Less rain in the Amazon

Predicted precipitation patterns for May to September 2023 to 2027 compared to 1991-2020 suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia. And a shortened rainy season for the Amazon and parts of Australia.

(With AFP)

Read also

Prepare for El Niño, it will lead to a new peak in global warming; UN alert

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, warned of the great possibility of the El Niño phenomenon happening this year, which could take global temperatures to new records. The WMO stated that the world must prepare for the heat wave and other effects that are expected to hit the planet in 2024.

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