According to IPPR report, areas such as back office, entry-level and part-time jobs are the most exposed to automation. This means that functions like secretariamanagement, customer service and administration are at risk. Furthermore, women, young people and low- and medium-wage workers are most vulnerable to this transformation.
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AI Adoption Stages
IPPR's analysis identified two main stages of generative AI adoption: the first wave, already present, and a second wave in which companies will more deeply integrate existing AI technologies into their processes. Currently, 11% of tasks are exposed to existing generative AI, which could increase to 59% with deeper integration of AI by companies.
Future Scenarios
The report modeled three scenarios for the potential impact of the second wave of AI adoption on the job market:
- Worst scenario: total job replacement, resulting in 7,9 million jobs lost and no GDP gains.
- Central scenario: 4,4 million jobs lost, but with economic gains of 6,3% of GDP.
- Best scenario: no jobs lost, with an economic boost of 13% of GDP.
Recommendations for the Future
Given this panorama, the IPPR states that it is crucial that the British government adopts an industrial strategy focused on jobs for AI. This includes encouraging job transitions and ensuring that the benefits of automation are broadly distributed across the economy. Measures such as support for green jobs and regulatory changes are essential in this process.
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Conclusion
The IPPR study highlights that the future of work in the UK is intrinsically linked to the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence. While there are significant challenges, there are also opportunities to boost economic growth and improve living standards. However, this will only be possible if there is a collaborative approach between government, business and society to ensure that the benefits of automation are equitably distributed.
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