The new survey shows a scenario of stability for the second round of the presidential elections.
In valid votes – when blank and null votes are excluded – Lula has 54% and Bolsonaro, 46%.
The institute interviewed 2 thousand people in person between days 10 12 and October. The confidence level, according to the institute, is 95%. The research was registered with the TSE under number BR-07940 / 2022.
Rejection
- Bolsonaro (PL): 50%
- Lula (PT): 42%
They claim that their vote is 'definitive':
- Bolsonaro (PL): 94%
- Lula (PT): 93%
Quaest conducts door-to-door interviews, having interviewed 2 people from 120 Brazilian cities in person for this survey.
According to Felipe Nunes, director of the Quaest institute:
“The stability of the situation is great, and it seems stronger with the voting decision data: 93% of Lula's voters are determined to vote for him, and 94% of Bolsonaro's voters say that their decision is definitive. But as every vote counts, the 6% in each group is up for grabs.”
Voter behavior and interest
The institute also instituted a new model, called likely voter (probable voter), which identifies voters most likely to vote on October 30, taking into account data such as interest in the election and the voter's previous behavior. In this scenario, considering only valid votes, Lula has 53%, and Bolsonaro, 47%.
Among voters with low education, Lula has a large advantage against Bolsonaro in this scenario.
Vote The confidence level of the survey, according to the institute, is 95%. The research was registered with the TSE under number BR-07940/2022 and cost R$112.865,23.
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