O All for Health Institute also points out that, ten weeks ago, only 2 macro-regions were experiencing a high rate of cases. With 400 cases per 100 inhabitants, Espírito Santo currently leads the rate of covid-19 cases.
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ITpS uses 'nowcasting' methodology
Based on a methodology that analyzes statistical models that correct data delays (nowcasting) to predict the current scenario and the influence of variants, ITpS also sought information from Johns Hopkins University and the international bank Gisaid. This is because the samples available on Gisaid were collected from September 25th to November 18th.
According to ITpS, “The generation of sequencing data is a complex and multidisciplinary process, with delays being common between the collection of samples and the deposit of genomes in Gisaid. Therefore, ITpS used the nowcasting".
Regarding the variants, based on the SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing information sent by Brazil to the international bank, the ITpS understands that BQ.1 is predominant in the Central-West, Northeast and Southeast. On the other hand, in the south the B1 variants dominate. and BA.5, while in the north only BA.5 stands out.
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ITpS also updated data regarding the positivity rate of tests for SARS-CoV-2. The percentage changed from 41% to 37%, comparing the weeks ending on November 19th and 26th of the same month. The number was adjusted accordingly after receiving new analysis data from the Institute's partner laboratories: Dasa, DB Molecular and HLAGyn.
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