Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the next decade

Scientists from South Korea, Canada and Germany used observation data from the years 1979-2019 to carry out new simulations.

“The results indicate that the first September without sea ice could occur in the years 2030-2050, whatever the greenhouse gas emissions scenario,” these scientists explain in the journal Nature Communications.

Strictly speaking, the absence of ice implies a surface area of ​​less than 1 million km², as there could be residual ice left along the coast.

The Arctic Ocean represents a surface area of ​​approximately 14 million square kilometers and is covered in ice for most of the year.

September is the month in which the sea ice surface decreases the most.

“This is approximately a decade earlier than the most recent projections” from the group of UN climate scientists, explains Seung-Ki Min, a researcher at the South Korean universities of Pohang and Yonsei and co-author of the article.

Scientists also consider that this disappearance of ice could essentially be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, as other factors (aerosols, solar and volcanic activity) are much less important.

Sea ice is salt water that solidifies due to the cold. Its melting does not directly cause sea levels to rise (unlike the ice cap or glaciers), but it has, in any case, harmful consequences.

This ice plays a very important role during the summer, because it reflects the sun's rays.

The disappearance of ice “will accelerate warming in the Arctic, which could lead to an increase in extreme weather episodes in mid-latitudes, such as long periods of heat waves and forest fires”, explains Seung-Ki Min.

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