Datafolha: Lula has 50% of valid votes, Bolsonaro continues with 36%

To calculate valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample.

Why did electoral polls start to reinforce the disclosure of valid votes?

Four days before the election, voting intention polls gained great prominence in the political world. In a scenario where the presidential race could be decided in the first round, research institutes began to reinforce the disclosure of valid votes estimated for the election. According to the Estadão electoral poll aggregator, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads with 52% of valid votes compared to 36% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL). With this result, the PT member would be elected on Sunday night (2).

 Former president Lula remains within the 50% range of valid votes – which would give him victory in the first round, according to electoral rules. However, due to the margin of error (two percentage points up or down), according to Datafolha, It is not yet possible to say whether the election will be decided next Sunday (2).

Jair Bolsonaro (PL) remains with the 36% of valid votes he had in last week's survey, according to the new Datafolha.

Other candidates

Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 5%, behind Simone Tebet (MDB) with 6%. The two are technically tied according to the margin of error.

The survey interviewed 12.800 people in 310 cities. The survey has the record BR-00245/2022 at the Superior Electoral Court.

See also:

Latest polls for Presidency: Datafolha shows Lula with 52% and Bolsonaro, 48% in valid votes

Follow the most recent polls of voting intentions, registered with the TSE and published from 15/08.